Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c18bb127c2727a967eb657248b98bc530389e38348fff050e2a4ab60e53392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 34c | 15,399$5,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,206.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked No | 0c | 8,959$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…9b38backed Yes | 42c | 6,878$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 44c | 4,255$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.56 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…cd31backed No | 77c | 3,932$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 78c | 3,280$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 73c | 3,144$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.97 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 9c | 2,387$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…3546backed No | 5c | 2,035$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed Yes | 50c | 2,012$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 2c | 1,940$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…84b9backed Yes | 31c | 1,672$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 1,654$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.19 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,587$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.58 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…6990backed Yes | 17c | 1,586$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,584$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 58c | 1,550$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.62 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 53c | 1,430$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…2c93backed Yes | 27c | 1,407$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…7567backed No | 75c | 1,334$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Yes | 33c | 1,226$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 76c | 1,220$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.07 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 71c | 1,170$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 71c | 1,150$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,124$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 1,100$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…ee1dbacked No | 10c | 1,083$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 52c | 1,082$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…1271backed No | 9c | 1,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,054$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.94 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes | 36c | 1,029$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 2c | 1,016$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…864ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 76c | 964.4$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.74 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…9b63backed No | 12c | 948.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…2482backed Yes | 44c | 914.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…205cbacked No | 13c | 913.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 59c | 804.24$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 26c | 800.24$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 26c | 798.01$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 768.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 13c | 760.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 679.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 621.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 30c | 611.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.16 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 27c | 584.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 29c | 541.61$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 513.29$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 60c | 506.62$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 7cpaid | +694.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 71c | 491.31$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.06 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 48c | 479.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 29c | 465.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 71c | 439.99$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2caa…a0d2backed Yes | 37c | 437.97$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 32c | 433.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.3 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 428.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 47c | 426.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +440.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 420.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 51c | 419.91$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 49c | 408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fb…0eafbacked Yes | 30c | 400.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +402.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 5c | 400.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…3908backed No | 13c | 392.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…6fb9backed No | 12c | 380.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d3…35b8backed Yes | 72c | 369.66$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 367.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 55c | 365.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…6222backed No | 70c | 350.94$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 29c | 349.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 44c | 331.39$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9672…4289backed No | 7c | 330$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 80c | 328.51$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…e8b0backed No | 76c | 316.9$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a74…ebbebacked No | 13c | 313.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…9688backed Yes | 33c | 310.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…9417backed No | 6c | 309.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c6…be09backed No | 75c | 308.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…4279backed No | 76c | 307.18$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9909…cbdabacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed No | 11c | 299.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…e6bdbacked No | 3c | 296.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…2968backed No | 18c | 284.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…2a3ebacked Yes | 14c | 276.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +590.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked Yes | 16c | 272.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…f05abacked No | 11c | 271.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…f635backed No | 12c | 271$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 60c | 270.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 4c | 257.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…89b2backed No | 13c | 255.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 73c | 254$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 47c | 253.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 80c | 250.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…521fbacked No | 10c | 244.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 63c | 230.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 49c | 221.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 28c | 220$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.