Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a280b68e23dce244ba44014ff6c7cf21c1ea952370eb8f8addd25f52ea12394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 3c | 2,525$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 1c | 1,984$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 1,620$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 3c | 1,537$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 44c | 1,116$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 21c | 1,056$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.43 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 4c | 894.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 59c | 608.27$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.23 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 545.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 529.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 64c | 518.03$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.57 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…6990backed Yes | 58c | 428.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 73c | 353.31$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 339.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 68c | 331.13$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 60c | 330.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 46c | 306.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 302.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked No | 7c | 298.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 65c | 280$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 53c | 279.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…128cbacked No | 46c | 227.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed Yes | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 34c | 184$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d3…35b8backed Yes | 56c | 182.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 71c | 177.65$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6ebbbacked No | 48c | 168.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 80c | 164.43$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…9c04backed Yes | 64c | 154.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 41c | 151.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 45c | 150.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 46c | 143.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 141.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 49c | 133.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 15c | 131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…93a3backed No | 34c | 119.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 104.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b00…4bb1backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 54c | 99.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 51c | 99.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 63c | 70.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…baafbacked Yes | 57c | 65.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91b…29a7backed Yes | 62c | 51.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed Yes | 56c | 50.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Yes | 54c | 45.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 56c | 44.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9253…344cbacked No | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2327backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…efc7backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 58c | 39.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…6663backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 66c | 39.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 32.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…d55bbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…3355backed No | 37c | 29.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 73c | 29.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked No | 37c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 40c | 28.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 57c | 26.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…abd4backed Yes | 61c | 24.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…8dabbacked Yes | 70c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…ad19backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…3f5abacked Yes | 59c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…0f50backed Yes | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 63c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.