Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070086893dcfda090f3f861a3b4d54f03c7a3249d12037c0026830f51bcf2529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 11c | 9,492$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.78 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 10c | 3,600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed Yes | 18c | 2,243$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 19c | 1,821$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…72d6backed Yes | 13c | 1,779$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,763$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.13 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…136cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,491$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8751…b1f7backed Yes | 13c | 1,190$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 1,156$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…f6b3backed Yes | 28c | 881.62$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 878.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 18c | 873.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 79c | 511.3$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba7…f187backed Yes | 20c | 448.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…819bbacked Yes | 23c | 388.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 334.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 9c | 286.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 13c | 255.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc284…9507backed Yes | 15c | 225.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…9b38backed Yes | 15c | 218.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…8f74backed Yes | 14c | 210.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 196.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c05…11a8backed Yes | 26c | 190.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 188.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…7786backed No | 79c | 183.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 6c | 183.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 11c | 182.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 169.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…abd2backed No | 74c | 161.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 10c | 151.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 11c | 132$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 17c | 118.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 11c | 106.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…202ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 99.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcd6backed Yes | 30c | 98.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 98.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 95.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0e…bcb8backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…f2b0backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…b479backed No | 79c | 76.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 76.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.