AI · resolved market
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x995d65ff1d4912fb789833e5442d89841e37b7a2daa3261dde5a36fad836507c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 16c | 1,350$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 15c | 789.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 16c | 750$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 16c | 750$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed Yes | 19c | 402.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 78c | 294$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 203.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…c9e1backed No | 78c | 147$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 59c | 71.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 41.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 60c | 41.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…e016backed Yes | 58c | 38.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 77c | 22.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d1…5cdfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31?this page
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 550.0k by May 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 600.0k by May 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 300.0k by May 31?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by May 31?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.