IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40488748f5df0f3f8b797c967aef25d43d54a90488166d9ff9487a79ec5d8a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 19c | 6,266$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1255backed No | 5c | 5,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 3c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 33c | 1,997$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 5c | 1,970$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 11c | 1,741$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 77c | 1,737$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 1,611$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.19 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 64c | 1,473$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 67c | 1,409$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,259$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 1,232$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,223$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 8c | 1,208$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 67c | 1,096$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 19c | 1,072$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 36c | 1,069$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 67c | 895$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…b81abacked Yes | 75c | 893.68$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…6e55backed No | 6c | 832.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 76c | 792.99$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 757$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed No | 76c | 755$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…2943backed No | 14c | 701.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 699.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed No | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 632.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6700…67c4backed No | 12c | 614.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 33c | 597$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 33c | 593$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 33c | 586$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 15c | 585.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…d210backed Yes | 22c | 569.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 17c | 535.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 515$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…ec61backed No | 10c | 450$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 19c | 427.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 21c | 419.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.29 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 36c | 404$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 64c | 387$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 67c | 373$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e6…560bbacked Yes | 14c | 346.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +593.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 5c | 310.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 13c | 305$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…d43cbacked No | 11c | 305$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 24c | 289$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…be5dbacked Yes | 33c | 280$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…9e78backed No | 67c | 280$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 15c | 277$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 21c | 260$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…db1cbacked Yes | 14c | 260$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 21c | 259.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd4…5127backed Yes | 77c | 258.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 73c | 258.38$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 9c | 253.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 251.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 24c | 240$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 24c | 226$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 5c | 225.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 13c | 217.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ad…0c64backed Yes | 27c | 202$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee98…113dbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed Yes | 79c | 196.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 36c | 194$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 36c | 193$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed No | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…569fbacked Yes | 76c | 191$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 76c | 187.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.77 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 74c | 149.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 133.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 19c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 77c | 126.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 71c | 125.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…d756backed Yes | 22c | 125.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +363.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…5623backed Yes | 36c | 125.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…fca1backed Yes | 72c | 120.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…13d4backed Yes | 27c | 114.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…780bbacked No | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed Yes | 22c | 106.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 25c | 101.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…442abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 15cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…95e7backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 15c | 87.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…170bbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 77.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 70c | 69.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 71c | 66.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 9cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?this page
- Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.