IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa804d03527e73e0adacd57e7fa0c7a1bb10afa89122d71ece98cd96b82fb49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes | 0c | 9,037$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…d9c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,644$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 1,276$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 80c | 1,240$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,041$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 1,015$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 19c | 927$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 19c | 914$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 19c | 887$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 80c | 852$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 19c | 851.83$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 80c | 833$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 19c | 712$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 20c | 586$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 19c | 569$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 19c | 563$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 19c | 560$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 20c | 556$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 19c | 547$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed Yes | 20c | 543$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 19c | 535$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 19c | 521$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 19c | 468.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 20c | 427$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 20c | 420$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 19c | 398.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 22c | 364.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 19c | 325$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 19c | 325$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 19c | 316.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 19c | 143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 19c | 139$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c6…490cbacked Yes | 19c | 106.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 103$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…6727backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…759cbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 85.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…5623backed Yes | 18c | 85.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…0b24backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…2a66backed No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?this page
- Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?Yes won
- Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.