IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce22988f692cb44a3d00d5c67afe22a142965385c8796ec035974273e7bf7332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,874$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 896.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 4c | 736.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…5516backed Yes | 4c | 597.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 3c | 390$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fceebacked Yes | 5c | 365$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 3c | 342$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…d8a4backed Yes | 7c | 155.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO?this page
- Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?Yes won
- Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?No won
- Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.