TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Ningbo Rockets vs. Beijing Royal Fighters

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ningbo Rocketsof Ningbo Rockets, Beijing Royal Fighters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Ningbo Rockets67c6,479$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.5616828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Beijing Royal Fighters42c4,631$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.33735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Beijing Royal Fighters17c3,566$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.3513220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Ningbo Rockets30c2,874$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.83063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ningbo Rockets36c2,160$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.0524430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Beijing Royal Fighters64c1,834$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.375151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Beijing Royal Fighters16c1,672$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1913046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Ningbo Rockets68c1,345$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.213235.6%47 W · 85 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ningbo Rockets78c1,200$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.3336939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ningbo Rockets56c1,179$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.1928943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Ningbo Rockets40c1,157$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.6516235.2%57 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Ningbo Rockets37c976.53$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.961631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Beijing Royal Fighters57c810.5$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.8554251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x091e…84bcbacked Beijing Royal Fighters70c718.84$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Ningbo Rockets31c618.42$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.717138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0e…b995backed Beijing Royal Fighters72c566.71$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Beijing Royal Fighters57c487.48$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.862544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Beijing Royal Fighters53c470.87$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.561464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+33.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Ningbo Rockets35c467.12$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.4737052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Ningbo Rockets37c460$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.665747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Beijing Royal Fighters67c438.57$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.325844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Ningbo Rockets45c416.32$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Beijing Royal Fighters68c410.26$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.983036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Beijing Royal Fighters51c396.8$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Beijing Royal Fighters68c378.89$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.451656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Beijing Royal Fighters61c356.83$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.059946.5%46 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe081…fc19backed Beijing Royal Fighters62c315.23$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Beijing Royal Fighters32c302.13$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4443543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Ningbo Rockets70c295.43$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.638845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ningbo Rockets59c286.73$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6631651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Ningbo Rockets36c269.22$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.979851%50 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Ningbo Rockets45c268.76$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Beijing Royal Fighters59c246.34$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.341850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Ningbo Rockets41c235.27$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.81977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+63.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Beijing Royal Fighters43c222.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.63243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Ningbo Rockets47c205.9$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.541145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Beijing Royal Fighters19c187.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.253737.8%14 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Ningbo Rockets60c174.19$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.32944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Beijing Royal Fighters8c170.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.558611.6%10 W · 76 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Beijing Royal Fighters68c165.66$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6726935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Ningbo Rockets36c156$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…6336backed Ningbo Rockets34c132.59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Beijing Royal Fighters66c131.37$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.081656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…98cfbacked Beijing Royal Fighters64c129.24$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Beijing Royal Fighters60c125.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.463756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3492…969abacked Ningbo Rockets47c123.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Ningbo Rockets45c116.01$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.364452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Beijing Royal Fighters55c109.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Ningbo Rockets70c106.81$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.524946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Ningbo Rockets44c104.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0710634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Ningbo Rockets31c100.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.414245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Beijing Royal Fighters60c100.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.017042.9%30 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Ningbo Rockets43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Ningbo Rockets47c95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3519748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Ningbo Rockets74c93.38$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.419551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Ningbo Rockets38c90.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.113751.1%70 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Ningbo Rockets76c87.39$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.043652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Beijing Royal Fighters16c87.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9610947.7%52 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked Ningbo Rockets73c83.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.153100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ningbo Rockets54c83.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9535234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Beijing Royal Fighters63c82.14$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.754452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Beijing Royal Fighters59c76.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.244344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Ningbo Rockets37c75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Beijing Royal Fighters62c74.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.054131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Beijing Royal Fighters66c74.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Ningbo Rockets45c72.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Beijing Royal Fighters68c70.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.054953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Ningbo Rockets77c68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52475%18 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Ningbo Rockets30c66.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.826949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Ningbo Rockets29c66.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.887341.1%30 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Ningbo Rockets36c54.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2414037.9%53 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3c…9320backed Ningbo Rockets36c53.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.193161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9599…edc4backed Ningbo Rockets56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Beijing Royal Fighters66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Ningbo Rockets45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Ningbo Rockets37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.527338.1%104 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Ningbo Rockets80c49.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.165666.1%37 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9f…8e23backed Ningbo Rockets34c47.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.261136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Beijing Royal Fighters62c46.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.085453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01de…f177backed Ningbo Rockets55c45.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Beijing Royal Fighters33c43.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.556642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Ningbo Rockets45c42.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.56848.5%33 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Beijing Royal Fighters41c40.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.536119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Ningbo Rockets67c39.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.063151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Ningbo Rockets51c38.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.023943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab2…b321backed Beijing Royal Fighters57c37.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-52.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Ningbo Rockets57c36.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Beijing Royal Fighters61c31.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Beijing Royal Fighters53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93735.1%13 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-44.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Ningbo Rockets50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Ningbo Rockets43c28.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.527944.3%35 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Ningbo Rockets43c28.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.562466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18c6…8e8fbacked Ningbo Rockets67c27.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.17450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd3…0d61backed Beijing Royal Fighters72c27.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.664165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed Beijing Royal Fighters49c23.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.741154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ec…7ed3backed Beijing Royal Fighters59c23.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c88…0d26backed Beijing Royal Fighters68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…bd79backed Beijing Royal Fighters68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4950…3df3backed Ningbo Rockets71c14.59$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.