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Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes3c19,808$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.572520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes1c13,329$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.131525.3%8 W · 144 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+225.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c11,492$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3843619.3%84 W · 352 L+24.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5e4…c282backed Yes8c8,334$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208f…69d7backed Yes3c7,582$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes15c5,056$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…6468backed Yes0c5,045$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes12c4,104$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.027328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec23…ac24backed Yes1c3,661$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes4c3,646$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes0c3,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.511011.8%13 W · 97 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf366…425ebacked Yes3c2,611$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.556127.9%17 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No72c2,398$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.8912232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes26c2,253$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2936113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No78c2,158$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.3216349.7%81 W · 82 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No54c2,153$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.0263739.1%249 W · 388 L+48.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12cc…e696backed Yes2c1,721$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+132.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe891…e07dbacked Yes4c1,638$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes3c1,620$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.65829.3%17 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb145…96ccbacked Yes4c1,351$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No69c858.36$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.058960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c793.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4412216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No72c649.98$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.523464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c607.76$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.442,57613.2%339 W · 2,237 L+4.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed No58c498.44$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c426$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6142628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No60c414.34$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.715944.7%71 W · 88 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes4c406.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-82.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x963b…e688backed Yes4c387.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c366.44$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1731554.9%173 W · 142 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c364.34$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2781335.7%290 W · 523 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No52c353.22$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.0212810.9%14 W · 114 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes20c349.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c323.33$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3725255.6%140 W · 112 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c280.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5922926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes33c209.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.25850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa6…0b79backed Yes21c199.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418033.8%27 W · 53 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes7c197.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.984822.9%11 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes12c169.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.711225%28 W · 84 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No71c168.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1138830.2%117 W · 271 L-21.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes24c167.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5919628.1%55 W · 141 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes26c160$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.610024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c151.52$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9118858.5%110 W · 78 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4072…c225backed Yes74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No61c144.67$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.162653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eaf…8920backed Yes68c142.24$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc633…480cbacked Yes33c141.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes16c140$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5451018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xba70…b6c7backed Yes12c138.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162528%7 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes8c135$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.259724.7%24 W · 73 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cb…e2b0backed Yes39c128.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda8…4567backed Yes78c127.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick74cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a2b…769cbacked Yes31c127.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a41…2c3ebacked Yes33c127.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e7…3885backed Yes9c119.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No73c115.76$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5534470.3%242 W · 102 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No69c110.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3334039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes15c109.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8213511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes21c108.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8421816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x981b…c11cbacked Yes18c108.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes31c104.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8313038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa32b…d02ebacked No32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+109.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.32763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bee…cdc5backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed No32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6817612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes19c99.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9942319.4%82 W · 341 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No73c96.51$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.442860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e2…147abacked Yes27c96.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.841729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+48.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No67c94.78$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9611864.4%76 W · 42 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No67c94.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.622352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa920…a07abacked Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes31c91.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes15c89.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes45c85.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c84$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4622557.8%130 W · 95 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes30c83.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.212543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a79…b31ebacked Yes31c83.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.581330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No46c83.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes24c83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.922123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb549…c2b6backed Yes48c78.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No67c70.48$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.933063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c28…4e7dbacked Yes28c69.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa2…3729backed Yes20c68.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes31c66.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.65728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No74c59.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.374965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c56.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6152645.6%240 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes56c55.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7272backed Yes45c54.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes33c53.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No76c53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.962152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes33c50.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6120532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No63c50.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.762040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3706…9462backed Yes61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.