Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b9766200e349be4850258a3e6801633501d202a0313d1163654ec2d280a9d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x006b…ff69backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…71a5backed Yes | 0c | 10,530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,064$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,672$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.11 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 25c | 641.87$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 79c | 506.74$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 404.83$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 39c | 385.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 25c | 350.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 45c | 325.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 291$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 28c | 251.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 230.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…137ebacked Yes | 30c | 212.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes | 37c | 210.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 201.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 147$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 28c | 137.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 27c | 115.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes | 27c | 114.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 25c | 95.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed Yes | 39c | 93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca0…a4abbacked Yes | 33c | 89.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…eb8cbacked Yes | 26c | 66.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 63c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes | 28c | 59.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 55c | 55.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Yes | 60c | 50.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…b31ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 75c | 28.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 74c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.