TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x006b…ff69backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes0c10,530$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c4,064$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes5c3,672$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.1136113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes25c641.87$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0165623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No79c506.74$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.358960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c404.83$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.342,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes39c385.03$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+62.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes25c350.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.136631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes45c325.46$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.61330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes13c291$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.140719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes28c251.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.771249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c230.34$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8179735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1849…137ebacked Yes30c212.32$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.392642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes37c210.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.022524%6 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid+54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c201.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6542628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104513.3%6 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209740.2%39 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c147$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4314864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes28c137.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.567150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked Yes43c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes27c115.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.572330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes27c114.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.01812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a0…63a4backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c96$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2918358.5%107 W · 76 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes25c95.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9510924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x208f…69d7backed Yes39c93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.27922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca0…a4abbacked Yes33c89.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4b…eb8cbacked Yes26c66.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No63c66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.62161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes28c59.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.549919.2%19 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes55c55.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.71850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b9…0893backed No64c52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb549…c2b6backed Yes60c50.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.513038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a79…b31ebacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes60c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.526461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.621857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No75c28.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.121637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No74c15.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.052045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.