Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57eed0d44f5b8ca54925d8d6ff440b146b3e6e071da18136ee3ee572d34479e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd9e…d576backed No | 51c | 39,474$20,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,047 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 52c | 29,665$15,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,263.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 50c | 10,259$5,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,144.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 57c | 10,206$5,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,344.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…c282backed No | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 50c | 9,925$4,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,962.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 46c | 8,896$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,771.84 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ce…fb67backed No | 43c | 7,100$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 54c | 6,837$3,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.08 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 48c | 6,316$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,281.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 49c | 5,284$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,685.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 48c | 5,081$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 48c | 4,798$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 43c | 4,000$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 47c | 3,500$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.99 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 48c | 3,500$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 55c | 3,465$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +193%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.85 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 3,255$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.49 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 48c | 3,240$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.11 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 49c | 3,175$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…4081backed Yes | 53c | 3,125$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 50c | 3,100$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 72c | 2,980$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,857$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.44 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 45c | 2,588$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.99 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed No | 39c | 2,546$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 55c | 2,434$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed Yes | 50c | 2,368$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…83c9backed No | 51c | 2,167$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 55c | 2,070$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.3 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed No | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…d7ebbacked Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 57c | 1,956$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…f94dbacked No | 40c | 1,953$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 47c | 1,938$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 80c | 1,729$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +92%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 46c | 1,700$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 50c | 1,688$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.44 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…89cbbacked Yes | 48c | 1,679$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…4beebacked No | 51c | 1,508$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 47c | 1,400$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 54c | 1,375$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.19 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 48c | 1,084$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.84 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…2296backed Yes | 53c | 1,005$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 25c | 999.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Yes | 50c | 949.59$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…940ebacked Yes | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 906.04$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.52 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 46c | 900$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.78 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…0e17backed Yes | 54c | 893.56$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 54c | 800$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…dd93backed Yes | 56c | 797.3$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 78c | 786.97$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 780.37$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.42 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 51c | 700$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…7c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 654$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 55c | 604.48$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 595.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 55c | 580.45$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.2 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 46c | 579.89$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.48 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed No | 47c | 515.05$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 27c | 510.29$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 54c | 465.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 70c | 450$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa1…f759backed No | 53c | 415.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d9…f155backed Yes | 45c | 413.6$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…2ceebacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…fd2fbacked Yes | 52c | 399.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 380.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d95…fb43backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed No | 47c | 331.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 68c | 324.48$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed Yes | 46c | 289.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 52c | 260.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 52c | 257.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…6161backed Yes | 51c | 251.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…ac39backed Yes | 48c | 247.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 36c | 241$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…7e63backed Yes | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…e666backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa3…ad2cbacked No | 33c | 224.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…8046backed No | 45c | 220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 77c | 213.13$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…4838backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed Yes | 45c | 211.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.