Middle East · resolved market
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3cd814a585cd6705ccc365073737a751628ddd3e55abf80fb2038954c7535b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 6c | 15,957$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 19cpaid | +239%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed Yes | 3c | 15,681$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 7c | 10,329$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.09 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,205$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 9,101$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…5974backed Yes | 7c | 6,788$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…ba81backed Yes | 2c | 5,218$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Yes | 10c | 3,555$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,105$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,848$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…fa07backed Yes | 6c | 2,216$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…d9a6backed Yes | 5c | 2,140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,940$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,845$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,834$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,764$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…3158backed Yes | 3c | 1,510$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,362$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,301$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 8c | 1,137$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,098$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 972.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 2c | 894.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +522.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 812.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 7c | 645$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 4c | 639.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 631.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 2c | 623.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 5c | 605.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…414abacked Yes | 2c | 603.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 8c | 588$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…bd98backed Yes | 5c | 551.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 541.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 531.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 8c | 498.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…e721backed Yes | 3c | 482.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 460.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ed…6847backed Yes | 9c | 438.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09f…06b4backed Yes | 5c | 393.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…727fbacked Yes | 7c | 374.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 364.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…1212backed Yes | 8c | 356.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 242.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 13c | 236.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 217.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…b918backed Yes | 9c | 216.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…1f6abacked Yes | 5c | 207.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7c…153cbacked Yes | 10c | 206.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…7229backed Yes | 7c | 205.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…b5e7backed Yes | 10c | 201.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…4548backed Yes | 14c | 170.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…7a7dbacked Yes | 14c | 106.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 14c | 104.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d1…734cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…8bc1backed Yes | 12c | 96.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 56c | 71.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?this page
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yes won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.