Middle East · resolved market
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9479fb558ffbf51d72351bfb52c1462801bfd87267afcf908188a8e7aeb7b445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 45,813$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…1f66backed Yes | 0c | 34,970$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 0c | 34,916$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 26,893$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…c931backed Yes | 0c | 26,335$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eac…a5ffbacked Yes | 0c | 19,135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…365ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,981$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,998$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…9c00backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 2,506$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,707$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…87c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,638$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…90cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,605$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,390$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,014$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed Yes | 6c | 947.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 3c | 859.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 2c | 645$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…5729backed Yes | 7c | 442.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f639backed Yes | 5c | 440.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 6c | 387.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…91debacked Yes | 4c | 290.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…3e64backed Yes | 4c | 253.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 10c | 248$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…4548backed Yes | 5c | 235.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 8c | 222$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…57debacked Yes | 10c | 209$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?this page
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yes won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.