TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9eac…a5ff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-89.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$11
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.05
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.52
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.34
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.66
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22.97
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.96
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.98
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.98
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$29.95
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.98
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$7.87
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+76.9%+$23.03
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37.9%+$11.37
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$14.97
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$12.47
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$34.27
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$14.96
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26.2%+$7.85
All 8 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+38.1%+$9.53
Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+26.2%+$11.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+61.5%+$18.41
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+82%+$24.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$6.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.