TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes21c25,000$5,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,313.587122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed No45c19,925$8,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,931.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No63c13,993$8,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,244.7122433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No72c11,210$8,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,159.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes53c9,041$4,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,814.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+106.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b27…674fbacked Yes44c7,146$3,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a8…e61fbacked No47c6,920$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,662.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes51c6,632$3,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No78c4,353$3,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.262330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No57c3,791$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.9212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a4e…1370backed No56c3,727$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No65c3,583$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.692045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed No52c3,258$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No59c2,973$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.413426.5%9 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0f8…c69ebacked Yes49c2,899$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes49c2,805$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.781010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+655.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No68c2,575$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.835819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes38c2,500$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.6810433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked No47c2,070$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed Yes71c2,017$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes46c2,003$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.011526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No49c1,869$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.481464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x440e…4907backed Yes57c1,754$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.481643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec0…976bbacked No44c1,740$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No62c1,721$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes11c1,693$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed Yes64c1,592$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0202236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b36…473bbacked No72c1,574$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes38c1,445$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes51c1,429$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.2980%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5ab…7cb0backed Yes42c1,190$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No58c1,188$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.0923330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No58c1,127$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.538632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No57c1,084$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.971250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes55c1,083$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No54c1,082$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.811359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Yes9c1,075$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-77.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed Yes37c1,016$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.231010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2439…c2acbacked Yes62c882$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes34c876.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.564621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca1…7181backed Yes60c833.62$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7065…b931backed Yes59c828.25$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No74c826.67$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes52c753.04$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No68c750$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c716.27$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes56c715.1$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes37c712.76$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.692433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed No51c702.12$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed No61c688.16$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8e1…031fbacked Yes23c671.82$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed No56c663$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+170.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes32c656.48$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.866523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…0a2fbacked Yes68c600$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1716…5507backed Yes63c599.47$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…ac45backed Yes51c598.66$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x639d…48f7backed Yes58c561.04$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes65c554.11$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No46c542$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.883016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No41c537.05$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.28683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked No52c526.96$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No51c516.52$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.763850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No54c514.97$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.412161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes42c509.26$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1217528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2302718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+359.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No64c496.18$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No56c471.57$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.472839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8b…350bbacked Yes73c463.62$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c455.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.414436.4%16 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee5…cb8cbacked Yes52c427.41$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e47…1268backed Yes55c426.53$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e2…c2ccbacked Yes39c412.96$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a9…83abbacked No60c407.54$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1de…06b4backed Yes42c386.23$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1806…e177backed Yes24c373$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d1…a374backed Yes56c355.76$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No48c330.35$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.786023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes39c327.87$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+693.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No70c324.5$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.41540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+178.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes55c323.43$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6410836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c318.53$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0820242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes10c312.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.063013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a9a…81d5backed No70c304.42$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed No33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…0b6dbacked No55c290.81$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2965…5afabacked Yes10c285.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.64520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-70.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes54c282.83$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7230918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed No37c282.56$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.284100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+238.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No62c272.64$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.141936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf2…a5aebacked Yes39c259.74$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c257.68$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.081764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209b…834abacked No55c256.94$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed No49c256.46$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes62c254.13$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No42c250$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c246.67$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9315148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bf…e6dbbacked No59c245.96$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4615…07d9backed No50c245$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…c35bbacked Yes11c232.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.