Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ee81d959b52711cbef37fb26ed617c1aed90d8043a10f8800dcec6839ca846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 3c | 11,535$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.49 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 5,598$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.84 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed Yes | 2c | 4,198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 1,757$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.4 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 22c | 1,409$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.63 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 4c | 1,132$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 10c | 734.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 586.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 6c | 573.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 8c | 526.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 512.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 13c | 504.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 24c | 477.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 338.73$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 21c | 320.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 307$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 23c | 297.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 10c | 296.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 287.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes | 20c | 269.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 32c | 239.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Yes | 14c | 191.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 188.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Yes | 11c | 180.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +387%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 8c | 173.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 14c | 169.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…8647backed Yes | 32c | 157.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 19c | 151.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 10c | 134.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 13c | 114.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 109.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 84.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 79.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 13c | 76.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 20c | 57.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8876…bbc0backed No | 79c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.