Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4735…ed50backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 4c | 5,323$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,121.49 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 2,892$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790.46 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 2,023$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.47 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 9c | 1,435$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 933.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 882.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.23 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 23c | 799.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.68 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Yes | 7c | 628.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +387%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 460.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.91 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…41a6backed Yes | 10c | 406.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +915.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 312.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.34 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 264.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 4c | 235.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.34 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 211.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.76 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 52c | 200.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 187.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 19c | 169.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 161.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes | 8c | 159.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 157.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 9c | 141.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 133.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…feb9backed Yes | 10c | 128.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +932.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 124.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 17c | 114.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 38.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…7b8fbacked Yes | 31c | 34.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…3d0bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 78c | 25.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.