Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36f70ba24c9b0e0b8d3816cfeb8b8343f2cd57c38eaffda6fcaa897ac2144c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2965…5afabacked Yes | 4c | 1,507$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 7c | 1,284$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 12c | 1,277$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,213$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes | 6c | 1,119$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…9c5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 937.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 16c | 894.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 25c | 841.21$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 18c | 815.08$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.21 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 18c | 533.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 516.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 27c | 498$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 476.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 11c | 417.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 4c | 413.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 392.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 361.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 350.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 4c | 325.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 8c | 324.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 28c | 318.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 9c | 300.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 250.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 248$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 76c | 220.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…cadabacked Yes | 24c | 198.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Yes | 27c | 195.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 188.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 6c | 169.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 22c | 162$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…7edabacked Yes | 19c | 140.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 72c | 125.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…3efdbacked Yes | 16c | 125.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 14c | 123.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes | 10c | 118.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes | 15c | 118.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…1585backed Yes | 19c | 113.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 9c | 109.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 14c | 109.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…0338backed Yes | 26c | 107.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…3c0abacked Yes | 13c | 107.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 23c | 105.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…5975backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 13c | 101.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed No | 75c | 100.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…7b8fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed Yes | 31c | 98.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 16c | 91.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 26c | 77.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 18c | 61.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…0630backed Yes | 18c | 54.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 78c | 49.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed No | 75c | 34.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.