Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5726b84c330e995ea638bbfb4b7a4b580d7334bdc708697eaf0d94c8eb3d8fb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 8c | 7,335$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.81 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Yes | 5c | 2,610$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 21c | 1,583$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,147$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…064dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 18c | 994.61$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 933.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 799.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 636.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 539.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…af2dbacked Yes | 12c | 518.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…4c5ebacked No | 78c | 485.08$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 3c | 483.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 12c | 461.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…e024backed Yes | 4c | 461.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 79c | 455$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 444.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 408.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 15c | 388.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 363.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…77fabacked Yes | 5c | 328.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…8647backed Yes | 22c | 259.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 13c | 234.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b34…5923backed Yes | 14c | 204$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 21c | 169.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 22c | 114.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 114.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 107.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 12c | 90.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 50.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.