Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c23eb43f7aeca2ed64186ea1b8269d61ab53c564911b91b2808b51d85d5db8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2965…5afabacked Yes | 5c | 2,634$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 2,542$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.64 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,292$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.35 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 10c | 1,194$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 9c | 1,025$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes | 7c | 923.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 17c | 751.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 13c | 747.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 741.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 12c | 608.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 534.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 11c | 452.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 9c | 446.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 413.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 10c | 385.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 15c | 381.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 370$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes | 11c | 353.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 326.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 8c | 310$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 14c | 302.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e051backed Yes | 11c | 279.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 230.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 12c | 217.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f180backed Yes | 66c | 204.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…2beebacked Yes | 9c | 203.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 10c | 200.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 199.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…1585backed Yes | 13c | 196.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Yes | 26c | 184.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 11c | 169.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd07a…251bbacked Yes | 9c | 158.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…d5c2backed Yes | 9c | 157.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…201bbacked Yes | 9c | 152.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…879ebacked Yes | 8c | 141.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 10c | 123.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…039cbacked Yes | 9c | 121.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…5091backed Yes | 9c | 117.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 12c | 114.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…b10abacked Yes | 10c | 108.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 10c | 104.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 97.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…9808backed Yes | 16c | 94.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…7edabacked Yes | 21c | 94.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 21c | 80.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 80c | 78.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 24c | 74.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 65c | 41.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd15c…a712backed No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.