Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92bb81b6ddef26d3100275bbb9497167bc56f862c9f7b4dd47399602712eda0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f8…3bb4backed Yes | 32c | 9,352$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…33eebacked Yes | 32c | 8,830$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…4ff7backed Yes | 32c | 8,152$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…a961backed Yes | 30c | 6,280$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…811fbacked Yes | 32c | 5,500$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…f660backed Yes | 30c | 5,310$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…90c2backed Yes | 30c | 4,920$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…b586backed Yes | 30c | 4,560$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…2d7dbacked Yes | 30c | 4,350$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…9817backed Yes | 31c | 3,860$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4feb…446bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,520$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…c666backed Yes | 31c | 3,110$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…37fbbacked Yes | 31c | 3,005$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 24c | 2,503$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.26 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…bd68backed Yes | 36c | 2,010$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…175bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,400$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 1c | 1,184$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…f419backed Yes | 33c | 830.06$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 2c | 787.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 783.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 778.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 755.99$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.67 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 1c | 728.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…d461backed Yes | 31c | 699.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 620.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 487.91$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 5c | 474.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 30c | 445.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.37 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…0979backed Yes | 32c | 369.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…e38fbacked Yes | 6c | 360.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…2467backed No | 67c | 346.02$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 310.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 245.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 71c | 244.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 163.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…43dabacked Yes | 32c | 159.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 157.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 33c | 152.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 66c | 151.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 36c | 140.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…3944backed Yes | 33c | 131.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…8aaabacked Yes | 28c | 130.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 32c | 125.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 69c | 109$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 92.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…27d0backed Yes | 29c | 81.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 71.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 61.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 50.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…00c3backed No | 68c | 43.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 35.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…a5aebacked Yes | 30c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…b860backed Yes | 36c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 69c | 28.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 71c | 24.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes | 57c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eac…a5ffbacked No | 62c | 16.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 74c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?this page
- Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
- Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
- Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.