Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44c72c4ac31bac49724c80ed46339917d95f109ee31764c806432c7091a03598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 13c | 3,664$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.17 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked No | 70c | 2,475$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 10c | 1,784$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…9b1abacked Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 25c | 1,044$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.65 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed Yes | 14c | 925.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…e38fbacked Yes | 25c | 917.5$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 11c | 782$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbd…29d8backed Yes | 39c | 659.48$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…2467backed Yes | 10c | 473.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 434.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 190 | 10%19 W · 171 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…9468backed Yes | 26c | 391.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 6c | 358.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 345$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 80 | 22.5%18 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…7e95backed Yes | 18c | 334.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 7c | 279.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 276.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 529 | 11.7%62 W · 467 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 274.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 161 | 45.3%73 W · 88 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 60c | 273.57$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4405…6a37backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…ca31backed Yes | 4c | 247.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 29c | 246.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 217.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 171 | 32.7%56 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…6c7ebacked Yes | 15c | 208.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…ca8bbacked Yes | 21c | 197.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 190.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 16c | 178.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 12c | 172.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed No | 69c | 171$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 40cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 67c | 161$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…af79backed Yes | 31c | 158$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 78c | 149.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 67c | 146$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes | 17c | 110.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 346 | 34.7%120 W · 226 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…e870backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…7c3cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 33c | 97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 21c | 78.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…7f18backed Yes | 19c | 72.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…0313backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 63.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 704 | 15.2%107 W · 597 L | -110.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e04…7ce0backed Yes | 22c | 50.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 30c | 39.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…2903backed No | 80c | 24.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?this page
- Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
- Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
- Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.