Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e72b933a1daa2f2b76a8af990dc44fb3f3fe02c3b99084ed99b40835a2db0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb34…2423backed No | 1c | 13,675$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 57c | 1,638$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.36 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,351$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,246$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 46c | 1,119$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,006$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 55c | 858$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 63c | 825$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 46c | 804$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d86…d0a2backed No | 53c | 797$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 779.01$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.45 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 55c | 779$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 61c | 756$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbd…29d8backed Yes | 66c | 666.14$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 47c | 661$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 44c | 661$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 37c | 652$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 44c | 637$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 56c | 632$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 61c | 617$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 44c | 598.63$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 39c | 592$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 56c | 490$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 54c | 480$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 45c | 472$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed Yes | 44c | 447$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 56c | 440.21$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 57c | 431$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 39c | 421$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 72c | 414$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.14 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed No | 54c | 382$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 46c | 382$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 66c | 368.18$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes | 64c | 353.7$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 61c | 348.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 53c | 346$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 45c | 340$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 54c | 335$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 29c | 329.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked Yes | 44c | 328$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 54c | 320$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 296.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 56c | 292$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 39c | 291$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 43c | 257$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 57c | 257$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed Yes | 58c | 239$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 7c | 233.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 47c | 229$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 228.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 57c | 218.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…89f8backed Yes | 47c | 211.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 43c | 211$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 43c | 202$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 54c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 52c | 199.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 53c | 197$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 57c | 196$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 7c | 194.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed Yes | 44c | 192$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 40cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 30c | 191.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…c133backed Yes | 64c | 191.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 190.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 56c | 186$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…669cbacked Yes | 40c | 181.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 180.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 7c | 177.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 37c | 173$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 39c | 164$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedf…2da9backed Yes | 75c | 157.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 13c | 156.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 26c | 153.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 66c | 150.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 44c | 149$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 56c | 149$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 56c | 137$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes | 76c | 131.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 50c | 122.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 118.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 118.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 30c | 116.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 16c | 104.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 36c | 101.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 59c | 99.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 65c | 91.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 59c | 88.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 54c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 78.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 43c | 78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 40c | 75.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 55c | 74.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?this page
- Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
- Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
- Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.