TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb34…2423backed No1c13,675$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.42520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-71.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes57c1,638$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.3621161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes78c1,351$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.223026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507d…728dbacked Yes65c1,246$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No46c1,119$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.741241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes46c1,006$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed No55c858$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed No63c825$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-83.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed No46c804$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked Yes47c800$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d86…d0a2backed No53c797$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+194.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No43c779.01$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.4521155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed No55c779$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No61c756$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbd…29d8backed Yes66c666.14$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes47c661$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.331154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes44c661$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.161216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes37c652$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes44c637$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No56c632$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed No61c617$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1328831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No44c598.63$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.242055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes39c592$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No56c490$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes54c480$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+99%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes45c472$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.61936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed Yes44c447$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No56c440.21$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed No57c431$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed Yes39c421$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes72c414$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.146038.3%23 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed No54c382$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+164.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed Yes46c382$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes66c368.18$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.765754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes64c353.7$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes61c348.05$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2222948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No53c346$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.38366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes45c340$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes54c335$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.11050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No29c329.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.91435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked Yes44c328$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.683100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No54c320$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No42c296.34$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5733421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No56c292$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.52650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes39c291$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes43c257$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed No57c257$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.49425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes58c250$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed Yes58c239$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No7c233.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.235133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes47c229$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No29c228.4$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes57c218.4$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.982623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…89f8backed Yes47c211.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes43c211$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.27650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes43c202$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No54c200$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.792147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes52c199.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No53c197$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed No57c196$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.571030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No7c194.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0513647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x358d…7602backed Yes44c192$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick40cpaid+135.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No30c191.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.51195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ff…c133backed Yes64c191.64$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No44c190.33$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0966914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No56c186$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.761030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbfc…669cbacked Yes40c181.11$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No33c180.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6849511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No7c177.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.648149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes37c173$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes39c164$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaedf…2da9backed Yes75c157.73$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No13c156.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No26c153.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.414330.2%13 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes66c150.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed Yes44c149$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.44785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+82.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No56c149$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed No56c137$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.721258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes76c131.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-56%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes54c130$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes50c122.36$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.217521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes57c118.36$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2516632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No44c118.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5534129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No30c116.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.511855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff94…c347backed Yes50c108$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.386100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+104.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No16c104.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.641526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No36c101.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.619646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes59c99.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.813357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes65c91.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No59c88.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.23714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-80.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed Yes44c88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.28560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked No54c84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed No56c79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-78%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No16c78.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3318310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes43c78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.46955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No40c75.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.524131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes55c74.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.493961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.