IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2c68eb1353353fd779edde5a44efa8a9ed66cc0e1a284ea7a00c2afe2e908e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked No | 8c | 6,088$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…22e8backed No | 8c | 5,749$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 80c | 4,595$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 1c | 4,256$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…0563backed No | 3c | 4,091$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 3c | 3,691$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…5305backed No | 4c | 2,233$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 79c | 1,888$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 46c | 1,360$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 55c | 1,245$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.45 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 1,152$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 11c | 1,150$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 22c | 1,050$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +1,134.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed No | 2c | 922.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 21c | 850$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…d453backed No | 7c | 746.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 37c | 666.35$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 15c | 665.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 52c | 650$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 43c | 649.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…bfcbbacked No | 2c | 599.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed No | 33c | 569.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 31c | 559.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed Yes | 67c | 455$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed No | 47c | 447.63$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 10c | 444.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 31c | 372.88$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed No | 55c | 358.59$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 28c | 349.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…6300backed No | 65c | 325$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 32c | 310$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…fe3abacked No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 56c | 273.94$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 270.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 29c | 250.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58e…2a67backed No | 49c | 228.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 7c | 210.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…0c0bbacked No | 66c | 210.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked No | 40c | 201.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked Yes | 75c | 201.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…def9backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a02…8b73backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 18c | 193.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 73c | 189.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked Yes | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…b71abacked No | 61c | 180.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 62c | 177.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 59c | 177.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes | 61c | 170$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 61c | 165.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 37c | 163.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…3805backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…1475backed Yes | 60c | 147.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 11c | 136.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 26c | 135.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0731…5194backed No | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…3affbacked No | 64c | 120.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…9fb8backed No | 46c | 115$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…3f04backed No | 39c | 108.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…57dbbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…62f8backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…fd18backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…aa1ebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…50a7backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…8c8bbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…03ccbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…91f5backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48bb…1d9ebacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…9279backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…b756backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8631backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed No | 38c | 86.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 31c | 85.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…1c02backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +938.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…b65ebacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed No | 76c | 52.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 34c | 51.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…86debacked No | 34c | 51.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…78ebbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.