TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01bf…070dbacked No8c6,088$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6785…22e8backed No8c5,749$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes80c4,595$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No1c4,256$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8431…0563backed No3c4,091$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a19…073dbacked No3c3,691$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f5…5305backed No4c2,233$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes79c1,888$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked No46c1,360$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes55c1,245$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.454131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No26c1,152$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.521414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No11c1,150$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.061118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No22c1,050$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+1,134.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x577e…7e31backed No2c922.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No21c850$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d5…d453backed No7c746.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No37c666.35$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.621625%4 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No15c665.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes52c650$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No43c649.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes69c600$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18614425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No18c600$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe866…bfcbbacked No2c599.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5545…8371backed No33c569.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No31c559.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf0…34b8backed Yes67c455$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a0…ec34backed No47c447.63$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No10c444.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+105.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No13c400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No31c372.88$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…f6b9backed No55c358.59$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.79714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-74.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No28c349.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62f6…6300backed No65c325$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No32c310$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.182548%12 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ef…fe3abacked No43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes56c273.94$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.511435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c270.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.64829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No29c250.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe58e…2a67backed No49c228.34$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No7c210.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.321030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…0c0bbacked No66c210.54$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x862e…0b2ebacked No40c201.54$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-83.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce08…28bdbacked Yes75c201.21$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a1…def9backed Yes62c200$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a02…8b73backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No18c193.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.792626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed Yes73c189.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+69.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d06…397ebacked Yes55c181.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ce…b71abacked No61c180.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes62c177.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes59c177.39$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.612142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes61c170$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c6…d030backed Yes61c165.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes37c163.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+59.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b5e…3805backed Yes67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43a…1475backed Yes60c147.25$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed No11c136.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No26c135.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0731…5194backed No43c130$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x364e…3affbacked No64c120.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…9fb8backed No46c115$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f07…3f04backed No39c108.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd0…57dbbacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc255…62f8backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+44.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xa574…fd18backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb523…aa1ebacked Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…50a7backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a5e…8c8bbacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa23…03ccbacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fee…9589backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a9…c87abacked No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2549…91f5backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48bb…1d9ebacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b3…9279backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5c…b756backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec5…f20fbacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3565…8631backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed No38c86.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No31c85.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked No36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked No32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db2…1c02backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+938.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e7…b65ebacked No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa81d…7447backed No76c52.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No34c51.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.543225%8 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2cff…86debacked No34c51.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7093…78ebbacked Yes64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.