IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cf3b731e1735083b8a3480e153767b540bcdb64376660c42bdf5f3d8e62706c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 1,028$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 53c | 977.02$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…5490backed No | 71c | 916.73$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…7159backed Yes | 8c | 757.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…d567backed Yes | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 10c | 437$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 400.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 56c | 400$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 47c | 363.68$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 45c | 330.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…bcd8backed Yes | 44c | 315.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 44c | 271.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…5f9cbacked No | 57c | 266$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…9120backed No | 80c | 236.36$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…76d1backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 43c | 197.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed No | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 46c | 170.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…6fd5backed Yes | 43c | 157.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…17fcbacked Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…260fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 44c | 109.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154a…86b0backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…3007backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…1c47backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 84.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebc…6519backed Yes | 44c | 81.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…bd13backed Yes | 44c | 75.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 17c | 67.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…ae44backed No | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 49c | 48.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 55c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 55c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…3fb8backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.