IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8c650f56897a3061a81fdafeb63b7f71537d0f7fbab90542ea9d9de915c6ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 1,079$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 826.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 40c | 826.69$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 4c | 824.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 20c | 726.75$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 15c | 665.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 17c | 421.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 47c | 407.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked No | 54c | 353.36$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 75c | 348.61$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 54c | 320$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0731…5194backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…73f6backed No | 77c | 280$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…5c5dbacked No | 73c | 250$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 242.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 73c | 227.78$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 5c | 226.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed No | 56c | 214.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…6554backed No | 74c | 204.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed No | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…8c8bbacked Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48bb…1d9ebacked Yes | 23c | 196.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…7393backed No | 76c | 164.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f8…7158backed Yes | 27c | 140.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 42c | 135.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes | 46c | 108.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…4244backed Yes | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…57dbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50d…38a4backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…50a7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…9279backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…b756backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…df24backed No | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 73c | 69.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…250dbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ee…ba18backed No | 78c | 64.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5b…f1fbbacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8f…30f3backed No | 74c | 55.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…5330backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…2e61backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…9d89backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361d…761ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…3007backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…fc9dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…17fcbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…e580backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…9d19backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90fd…a71fbacked No | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.