Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f5e0422289609a2b9b209b5a19915ea152f1bb0895a94a1a7481eb96acad631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3ef…bba9backed No | 2c | 6,728$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 78c | 4,245$3,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 12c | 2,365$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.34 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 2c | 2,201$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…24e9backed No | 2c | 1,629$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 8c | 1,314$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 80c | 878.5$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 3c | 721.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 524.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…e34bbacked No | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 394.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 5c | 360.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 319.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 311.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked No | 22c | 310$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked No | 31c | 302.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 300.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 20c | 296$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked Yes | 80c | 278.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 262.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 259.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…d3b7backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 199.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 157.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 20c | 142.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 12c | 101.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed Yes | 77c | 93.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 78c | 69.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…1c2dbacked Yes | 72c | 63.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 19c | 62.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…d2ddbacked No | 25c | 56.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…cd5ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…37e5backed Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…3ce5backed Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 80c | 13.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.