Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a42e17327d230e3bc1c333cb137de346ab1b6aefa1d0f5843e04e29609faf7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x605b…b479backed Yes | 14c | 4,172$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…e57dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,490$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…e3f0backed Yes | 5c | 2,357$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…3c6dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,143$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…3703backed Yes | 5c | 2,128$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…85cebacked Yes | 4c | 2,126$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…9a65backed Yes | 5c | 1,929$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…e462backed Yes | 5c | 1,896$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…56d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,784$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…e90dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,723$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…33c2backed Yes | 6c | 1,715$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0668…a581backed Yes | 5c | 1,672$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…6a84backed Yes | 4c | 1,642$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…61a5backed Yes | 6c | 1,561$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e67…f256backed Yes | 4c | 1,492$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…77d3backed Yes | 12c | 1,480$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed Yes | 2c | 1,458$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…1bb3backed Yes | 12c | 1,444$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5909…24debacked Yes | 5c | 1,420$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 1,356$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…e698backed Yes | 5c | 1,337$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…4f6fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,312$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…762dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,289$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…50a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,273$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251c…2236backed Yes | 4c | 1,199$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…23e6backed Yes | 6c | 1,178$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…ed6abacked Yes | 6c | 1,133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…0463backed Yes | 12c | 1,127$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…5ff1backed Yes | 4c | 1,073$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,056$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…fcfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,051$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…92d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,050$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…a8e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,014$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…c950backed Yes | 7c | 1,005$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fd…f785backed Yes | 6c | 999$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…2363backed Yes | 6c | 988$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…f3f8backed Yes | 7c | 980$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…ec27backed Yes | 4c | 973$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…fcf7backed Yes | 6c | 971$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…e5f7backed Yes | 5c | 957$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…4eafbacked Yes | 11c | 932.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…3591backed Yes | 12c | 887$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…3dcfbacked Yes | 7c | 879$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…3979backed Yes | 8c | 864$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b2…9398backed Yes | 5c | 862$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…2db2backed Yes | 6c | 860$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 1c | 846.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64b…a88cbacked Yes | 6c | 842$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…8168backed Yes | 8c | 841$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…8151backed Yes | 6c | 813$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…62d3backed Yes | 7c | 793$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…ef33backed Yes | 5c | 792$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…eb04backed Yes | 7c | 790$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd57…fc80backed Yes | 6c | 787$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…a88ebacked Yes | 8c | 762.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…4595backed Yes | 7c | 747$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…6452backed Yes | 4c | 736$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 19c | 728.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…ee87backed Yes | 5c | 724$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6e57backed Yes | 4c | 711$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…9822backed Yes | 4c | 708$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…0c73backed Yes | 5c | 697$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…9cebbacked Yes | 5c | 697$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e1…ca93backed Yes | 4c | 687$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 13c | 675.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…2d0dbacked Yes | 4c | 665$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9753…5debbacked Yes | 6c | 620$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…402abacked Yes | 8c | 605$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…db08backed Yes | 5c | 583$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4088…94fdbacked Yes | 4c | 576$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…2d4cbacked Yes | 4c | 557$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…e011backed Yes | 6c | 552$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…2f05backed Yes | 7c | 551$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…1206backed Yes | 6c | 549$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…ddd4backed Yes | 4c | 528$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…6c09backed Yes | 4c | 525$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…5d12backed Yes | 6c | 516$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…0287backed Yes | 6c | 508$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3a…28c2backed Yes | 6c | 491$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…8730backed Yes | 4c | 471$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…9821backed Yes | 3c | 459$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…5965backed Yes | 8c | 448$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 438.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…506cbacked Yes | 6c | 422$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b6…970abacked Yes | 6c | 404$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…08eabacked Yes | 5c | 340$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes | 5c | 339.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…6fb5backed Yes | 5c | 336$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f3…1f1dbacked Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…5263backed Yes | 5c | 322$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…5e61backed Yes | 4c | 321$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…3c15backed Yes | 5c | 321$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cf…712ebacked Yes | 12c | 316$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ec…bbd6backed Yes | 5c | 313$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 279.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked Yes | 11c | 277.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…d3b7backed Yes | 19c | 257.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…188cbacked Yes | 18c | 247.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 211$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 182.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Yes won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.