Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcd4ff8d56f80b6c4af5c56b8737c26e91c1d6c1e01f9ddc1086a62b6b2a7070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e87…4db6backed Yes | 9c | 2,703$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…1223backed Yes | 5c | 2,701$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…d66fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,561$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…ff4dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,432$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…2c78backed Yes | 4c | 1,378$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,335$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…db68backed Yes | 4c | 1,323$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a2…9950backed Yes | 6c | 1,295$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…dd4dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,288$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…4f2bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,263$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d99…6391backed Yes | 4c | 1,260$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 1,260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…4fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,217$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…c9cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,196$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…9eaebacked Yes | 4c | 1,163$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…fcf7backed Yes | 5c | 1,091$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…539dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,069$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…10eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,053$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…77d3backed Yes | 6c | 1,043$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…6e8ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,002$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…7211backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…4bafbacked Yes | 9c | 992$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…a8e7backed Yes | 9c | 980$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…2838backed Yes | 5c | 957$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…4d60backed Yes | 4c | 934$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7b…716ebacked Yes | 5c | 921$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7800…2887backed Yes | 4c | 849$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…e584backed Yes | 4c | 747$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3d…1a10backed Yes | 4c | 703$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f33…e601backed Yes | 9c | 676$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7c32backed Yes | 4c | 638$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605b…b479backed Yes | 8c | 617.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…31c6backed Yes | 9c | 573$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…5954backed Yes | 9c | 572$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…3703backed Yes | 9c | 560$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…692cbacked Yes | 9c | 536$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…5f9ebacked Yes | 4c | 503$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…be72backed Yes | 6c | 498$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…fd1fbacked Yes | 4c | 484$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…78d4backed Yes | 4c | 467$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…2dc9backed Yes | 6c | 464$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…db35backed Yes | 4c | 461$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…26ccbacked Yes | 3c | 457.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…dfa3backed Yes | 4c | 415$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…7bc8backed Yes | 6c | 402$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…68debacked Yes | 6c | 384$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 239.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 238.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…5849backed Yes | 10c | 192.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 10c | 158.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.