Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x780eda657742337ca48284a55e7f2103d35484f16e05c49271cf1ed4e8cac89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,090$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 13c | 755.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 78c | 579.3$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 17c | 509.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 8c | 417.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 13c | 267$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 249.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…744dbacked Yes | 14c | 226$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 17c | 190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…457ebacked Yes | 14c | 168$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 157.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…d0c7backed Yes | 14c | 122$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…84e3backed Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 54.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?this page
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.