Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce5fb1312e1383038cbe594477429d920d6dfe4d1885da678ca511ed81ea6f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 78c | 47,252$36,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,496.79 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed No | 23c | 15,000$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 20c | 14,782$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 19c | 9,633$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.61 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked No | 19c | 4,312$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 16c | 3,100$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…d701backed No | 0c | 2,675$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 17c | 2,379$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 29c | 2,000$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…0294backed No | 31c | 1,761$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 20c | 1,759$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.23 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed No | 18c | 1,704$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed No | 27c | 1,497$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 27c | 1,368$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed No | 20c | 1,340$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,212$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.72 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 8c | 1,201$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.08 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed No | 25c | 1,148$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…dad2backed No | 18c | 1,025$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 80c | 988.13$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed No | 19c | 974.69$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed No | 25c | 908.91$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 21c | 815.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 21c | 800$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed No | 25c | 783.86$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 19c | 723.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.14 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 77c | 667.9$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 67c | 655.4$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.81 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 18c | 643.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 20c | 575.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…1a95backed No | 27c | 556.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 78c | 510.83$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 80c | 499.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 23c | 487.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 455.88$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 20c | 426.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 69c | 419.9$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 7c | 410.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 16c | 410$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…692bbacked No | 12c | 406$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 33c | 400$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 75c | 400$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 75c | 393.19$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…71f5backed No | 27c | 364.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 320$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 66c | 302.72$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 14c | 300.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed No | 34c | 294.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 282.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 22c | 278.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 276.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 18c | 275.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 32c | 268.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 75c | 265$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 77c | 258.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 76c | 250$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 28c | 241$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 31c | 228.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb443…a0cabacked No | 24c | 221.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…4797backed No | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed Yes | 27c | 211$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…23ffbacked No | 28c | 207.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 28c | 202.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 193.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 182.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…becfbacked No | 16c | 160.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 16c | 157.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…ca7fbacked Yes | 26c | 157$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 76c | 152$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 150.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 77c | 149.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 34c | 148.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a59…184ebacked No | 34c | 147.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 16c | 144.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 32c | 142.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 132.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 28c | 127.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 32c | 121$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c0…b32fbacked No | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 113.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cea…7a2fbacked No | 27c | 112.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161e…d5d0backed Yes | 19c | 107.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 11c | 106.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 103.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 22c | 100.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 31c | 100.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…508fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…8b67backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…47c6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?this page
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.