Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7cabaf4d6c529cc8ff3c947d432d69b558f165158df772e6eb317bb1ea32be9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 9c | 1,719$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 10c | 687.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 601.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 569.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 7c | 542$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 10c | 458.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 10c | 402.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 300.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 299.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 4c | 290.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 9c | 269.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed Yes | 9c | 260.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 8c | 241$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 213.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed Yes | 7c | 211$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…ca7fbacked Yes | 11c | 157$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 135.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 132.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 125.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 116.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 107.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…47c6backed Yes | 15c | 103.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…41f3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 74c | 94.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 82.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?this page
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.