Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7539e672729f47054481fbcc411cca685311f8664f86e78d189638e2ca2c76bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f36…1709backed Yes | 2c | 4,492$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,480$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 7c | 956.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 620.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 604.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 582.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 464.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 401.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 382.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 6c | 352.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes | 5c | 329.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 10c | 241$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed Yes | 8c | 211$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 203$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 177.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…ca7fbacked Yes | 9c | 157.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 9c | 152.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 10c | 152.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 10c | 144.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 10c | 141.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 117.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 9c | 111.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 9c | 111.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…47c6backed Yes | 13c | 103.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…41f3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?this page
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.