Middle East · resolved market
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa6bf0256e3a10240662b4d9c1cd30720b450297dce5e05d963671a3f42adcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 17c | 2,387$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.9 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 15c | 2,279$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.63 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,593$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 1,320$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.76 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 68c | 935$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 32c | 935$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 67c | 883$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 67c | 781$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 70c | 672$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 30c | 672$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 67c | 661$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…b990backed Yes | 20c | 626.53$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 593.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 70c | 534$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 30c | 534$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 33c | 532$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 33c | 528$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…628bbacked Yes | 13c | 511$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 33c | 470$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…a831backed Yes | 17c | 419.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed Yes | 33c | 413$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 33c | 339$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…2ed2backed Yes | 31c | 333$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 33c | 322$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 7c | 304.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes | 7c | 299.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 67c | 279$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 37c | 267.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…696ebacked No | 75c | 221.42$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…1f5dbacked Yes | 28c | 219.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 7c | 219.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4190…5220backed Yes | 26c | 195.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 16c | 185.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 17c | 173.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 13c | 167.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…9a8cbacked No | 71c | 163.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…5d2cbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 19c | 150.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 69c | 149.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 14c | 149.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 24c | 149.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…0b6dbacked Yes | 35c | 149$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…ed6ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 10c | 117.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 96.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 35c | 86.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 18c | 82.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…b50abacked No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 14c | 72.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed No | 73c | 60.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9e…6da8backed Yes | 27c | 55.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…9d32backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 47.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…4deabacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 37cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…d68bbacked No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…ecc4backed No | 65c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 22.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed No | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…10b5backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?this page
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.