Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a1ce4d9baaf57ee7c3310b811f7e06fa282c508e208ee7a9dd407a0bb9f858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 1c | 23,679$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 19c | 12,160$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.3 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,729$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 47c | 6,553$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,478.16 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 5c | 5,620$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 3,112$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.65 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 3c | 2,975$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 3c | 1,649$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 2c | 1,567$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,401$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,299$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…1a95backed Yes | 4c | 893.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 888.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 696.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 692.7$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.35 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 29c | 565.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.33 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Yes | 60c | 559.15$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 78c | 509.14$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 48c | 500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…df7cbacked No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 41c | 455.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 67c | 440.87$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 39c | 423.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.8 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 51c | 420$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 30c | 396.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.3 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 59c | 352.62$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 338.13$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 54c | 326.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed Yes | 54c | 319.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…dec2backed Yes | 3c | 314.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 288.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…1160backed Yes | 14c | 235$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 47c | 220$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 22c | 200.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 189.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 17c | 169.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 156.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…283bbacked Yes | 66c | 155$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 30c | 138.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 137.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…2d3abacked No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 51c | 110.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 59c | 105.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…5e71backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…d823backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 48c | 98.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 60c | 93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed No | 34c | 89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 49c | 80.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 80c | 76.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…5e0dbacked No | 59c | 76.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes | 16c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…480cbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…8da1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…7aefbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358f…6602backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…476dbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…b409backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…26eabacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…de1abacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…bacdbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 66c | 45.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…8400backed Yes | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 41c | 41.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed Yes | 46c | 32.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed No | 52c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 69c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?this page
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.