TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes1c23,679$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.733010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes19c12,160$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.31376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes1c7,729$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No47c6,553$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,478.1617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes5c5,620$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.951827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c3,112$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.6547328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes3c2,975$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.944211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes3c1,649$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4413820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…1535backed Yes2c1,567$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c1,401$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.851231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,299$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.331,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa426…1a95backed Yes4c893.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c888.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.232042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c696.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.412013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c692.7$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.3513034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes29c565.73$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3311633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Yes60c559.15$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No78c509.14$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.512142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes48c500$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf214…df7cbacked No47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No41c455.24$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.7426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No67c440.87$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.23166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No39c423.87$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.810549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked No51c420$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.25837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes66c400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes51c400$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No30c396.14$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.329642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No59c352.62$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5722030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No79c338.13$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.453636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes54c326.36$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed Yes54c319.03$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x082e…dec2backed Yes3c314.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No77c288.87$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa92e…1160backed Yes14c235$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe497…84aabacked Yes47c220$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes22c200.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.37945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No58c189.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.392343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes17c169.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.956137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes12c156.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1411825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0206…283bbacked Yes66c155$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes35c145$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.754930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes30c138.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.219532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes12c137.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.547241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd282…2d3abacked No49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b04…f467backed Yes51c110.67$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No59c105.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.191827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x663f…5e71backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d6…9689backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0b…b8b2backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda00…d823backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c2…0c32backed No48c98.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.36911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-76.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes42c93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.06319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No60c93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed No34c89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.741338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No49c80.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.694139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No80c76.96$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3932739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45f0…5e0dbacked No59c76.47$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes66c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-63.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes16c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No75c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.126855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…cce8backed No47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked Yes67c52.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc633…480cbacked Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c14…8da1backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af0…7aefbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d42backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.580%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.751040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x358f…6602backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4182backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d7f…9941backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f45…476dbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2b…b409backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c10…26eabacked No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf1a…de1abacked No67c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2594…bacdbacked No68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed No68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Yes66c45.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b3…8400backed Yes40c41.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No41c41.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.733959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f7…7bd9backed No46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84f…16e9backed Yes46c32.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe7f…7428backed No52c28.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.254560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No78c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.55875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+45.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No69c17.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.