Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119c5bf67a1614c0372fd810821e9cebc0512b9a4bf0d842c4365742fda4464d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 39c | 22,142$8,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,598.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 58c | 21,847$12,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,263.38 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 43c | 20,870$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.77 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 19c | 16,626$3,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,428.39 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 50c | 13,278$6,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,622.35 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 47c | 13,126$6,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,164.84 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 63c | 9,124$5,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392.44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 41c | 7,500$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 28c | 6,616$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.88 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed No | 29c | 4,245$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.33 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 4,144$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.47 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…71f0backed No | 49c | 4,013$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 38c | 3,600$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.48 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 50c | 3,476$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.77 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 19c | 3,346$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.49 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked No | 58c | 3,228$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 47c | 2,450$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.71 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed No | 68c | 2,400$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.67 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 2,178$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.7 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,130$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.74 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 47c | 1,944$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 50c | 1,922$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.58 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 52c | 1,826$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.07 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes | 34c | 1,689$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 59c | 1,570$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.56 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 1,541$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.1 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 1,523$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.48 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 19c | 1,333$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.69 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,300$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 1,098$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.81 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 59c | 999.99$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.03 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 53c | 985$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.35 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 980.81$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.36 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 918.96$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.48 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 905.31$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 43c | 799.98$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.69 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…718dbacked No | 53c | 789.79$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 50c | 760$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.16 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 35c | 745.24$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.79 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 53c | 693.15$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.8 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked No | 66c | 693.01$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 665.15$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 42c | 636.33$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 40c | 599$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 528.16$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 61c | 516$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 58c | 500$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 38c | 490.95$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 62c | 463.14$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 445$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 54c | 433$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 31c | 404.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed No | 48c | 398.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 381.98$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…1a95backed No | 53c | 380.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 33c | 354.63$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 50c | 350$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked No | 58c | 340$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed No | 58c | 340$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 34c | 335.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 43c | 329.05$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 54c | 328.02$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 324.43$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 58c | 312.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…bc21backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 297.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 45c | 290.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 65c | 284.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 11c | 281.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 67c | 278.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 268$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 13c | 263.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 64c | 257.58$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 255.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 15c | 253.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 37c | 253.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 41c | 251.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 51c | 250.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 43c | 249.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 47c | 233.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 48c | 230.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 211$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 45c | 209.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…f7e3backed No | 55c | 208.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 204.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 46c | 201.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.68per pick | 12cpaid | +851%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…cb06backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 30c | 199.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 199.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed No | 51c | 194.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?this page
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.