Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8840041faef8794010b4c8788d9258303897df0487003aca355286f94b792cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 13,597$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 11c | 9,873$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 0c | 9,283$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 3c | 8,575$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 3c | 7,643$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 14c | 7,451$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.12 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 2c | 4,898$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 1c | 3,714$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 15c | 2,806$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.32 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 6c | 2,534$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.62 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 77c | 2,423$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.7 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,285$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,034$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,016$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 1c | 2,004$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,904$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.9 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,645$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…1160backed Yes | 3c | 1,590$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 18c | 1,332$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Yes | 4c | 1,149$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,050$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 905.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 4c | 833.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 11c | 679.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 19c | 530.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 11c | 519.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 500.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…eb49backed Yes | 2c | 474.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 12c | 308$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 31c | 290$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 6c | 262.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 24c | 257.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 31c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 28c | 199.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 21c | 196.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 28c | 196.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 21c | 156.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 143$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 37c | 141.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 23c | 128.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 21c | 121.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…91debacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 13c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 16c | 93.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…d823backed Yes | 34c | 77.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 16c | 63.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 60.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 60.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…9a65backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…73bfbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358f…6602backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 42.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 73c | 40.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 74c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…1aabbacked No | 74c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…738ebacked No | 71c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?this page
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.