Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc55d1e71c5afcc602952ece1a60a729f687ce7d4f731b407c1a6b9339bfc5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 50c | 9,779$4,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,872.95 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 42c | 8,506$3,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,586.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 43c | 7,995$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,566.06 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 37c | 6,852$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,341.14 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 75c | 5,474$4,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,088.79 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 54c | 5,359$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.41 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 4,474$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.05 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed Yes | 37c | 4,383$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 34c | 4,077$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 53c | 3,286$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 39c | 2,939$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 50c | 2,205$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.21 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 59c | 1,950$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 48c | 1,889$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.31 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 45c | 1,808$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.3 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 1,783$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.93 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 1,542$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.81 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 31c | 1,500$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 1,438$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.38 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,325$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.49 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 39c | 1,164$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.81 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 1,124$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.97 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 56c | 999.99$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 981.08$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.22 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 42c | 932.72$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 918.96$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.69 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 905.31$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…dd62backed Yes | 50c | 876.2$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 70c | 815.13$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 57c | 808.68$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.61 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 71c | 805.56$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.46 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 794$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.28 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…458abacked Yes | 53c | 753.65$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 8c | 735.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.68per pick | 12cpaid | +851%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…ace4backed Yes | 53c | 718.4$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 60c | 662.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.73 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 39c | 600$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 52c | 555$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 47c | 498.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.62 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 458.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 59c | 447.91$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 445$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 45c | 390.82$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 380.41$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.67 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 373$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.39 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 44c | 369.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 18c | 362$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 62c | 356$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 47c | 350$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 35c | 336.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.26 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 334.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.88 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 47c | 325$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 43c | 322.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 320.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 67c | 313.37$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 52c | 313.37$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 53c | 312.36$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 33c | 306.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…a983backed Yes | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 20c | 282.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.36 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 53c | 279$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 275.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 54c | 268$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 51c | 264.13$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 51c | 261.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 34c | 260$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 256.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 29c | 254.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 61c | 252.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 46c | 250.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 44c | 250$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 50c | 242.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 44c | 236.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 235.84$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 233.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 45c | 231$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 22c | 218.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 14c | 215.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 39c | 212.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 209.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 20c | 207.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 38c | 201.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.45 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 52c | 199$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 34c | 189.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…54b7backed Yes | 46c | 189.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 49c | 187.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 59c | 184.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 33c | 184.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 181.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…c8adbacked No | 73c | 175.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?this page
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.