TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x955c…990fbacked No50c9,779$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,872.957157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No42c8,506$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.31822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes43c7,995$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,566.064746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes37c6,852$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,341.1423639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No75c5,474$4,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,088.7929642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes54c5,359$2,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.4129735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes53c4,474$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.0547328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ee3…c539backed Yes37c4,383$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.21955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+113.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes34c4,077$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.84580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+46.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes53c3,286$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.532832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes39c2,939$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.223243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No50c2,205$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.2117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…1535backed Yes39c2,000$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.621241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No59c1,950$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.382142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes48c1,889$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.314643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes45c1,808$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.33116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes51c1,783$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.9318746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No49c1,542$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.814429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No31c1,500$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.52729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90032739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c1,438$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.3812442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes65c1,325$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.49283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes39c1,164$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.8111633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No51c1,124$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.976446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes56c999.99$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44115059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No45c981.08$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.227537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No42c932.72$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3942751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No54c918.96$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.695251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes43c905.31$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.762536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2130…dd62backed Yes50c876.2$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8179…4403backed Yes70c815.13$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.132236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes57c808.68$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.6113635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes71c805.56$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.463568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c794$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.2810645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc428…458abacked Yes53c753.65$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes8c735.18$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.07580%4 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.68per pick12cpaid+851%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x361b…ace4backed Yes53c718.4$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes60c662.73$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.734211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes39c600$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No52c555$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.714829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No47c498.92$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.62166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No51c458.83$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1816737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No59c447.91$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No38c445$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.215147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No45c390.82$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c380.41$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.678351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c373$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.399951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No44c369.98$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.052352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes18c362$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.761560%9 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+119.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes62c356$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.062441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked No15c350$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.523321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes47c350$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.155650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498f…ec61backed Yes35c336.47$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.263033.3%10 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c334.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.8816237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes47c325$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes43c322.2$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes25c320.9$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes67c313.37$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.94250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes52c313.37$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.83066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+88.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes53c312.36$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.291926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes33c306.67$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.5617540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c4…a983backed Yes53c300$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes20c282.72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3612030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes53c279$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.52650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No50c275.27$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3816015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No54c268$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.826642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes51c264.13$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.646150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No51c261.36$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x939d…f0f0backed Yes34c260$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.73330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No54c256.42$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed Yes29c254.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+73.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes61c252.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes46c250.47$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes44c250$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2510549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes50c242.48$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.371855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes44c236.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.511827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No62c235.84$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c233.29$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.121,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No45c231$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…cce8backed No22c218.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes14c215.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.822814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe497…84aabacked Yes39c212.48$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes55c209.85$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.322040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes20c207.69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.59313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes38c201.2$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.457945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No39c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9729423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.363540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes22c200$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.43010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No52c199$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.185234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes55c190$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.431030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes34c189.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.131233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…54b7backed Yes46c189.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No49c187.64$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes59c184.69$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+126.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed Yes33c184.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.431030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c181.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b0c…c8adbacked No73c175.76$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.