Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ccc82c77d44128414db86e3a7f3b20a67b0fe55a019085c168cc016b79e549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 39c | 4,113$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 61c | 2,791$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.67 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 8c | 2,653$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 64c | 1,921$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee34…4f48backed No | 79c | 1,904$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 21c | 1,349$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.26 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 30c | 1,133$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.44 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Yes | 16c | 1,060$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 23c | 990.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.03 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 30c | 972.32$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.62 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 68c | 877.47$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 21c | 843.12$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 48c | 470.02$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.66 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 19c | 459.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.39 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be7…c647backed Yes | 35c | 444.68$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 443.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 33c | 426.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.53 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 79c | 407.86$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 44c | 329.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 328.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.06 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 62c | 321.59$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 320.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 5c | 291.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…e2b1backed Yes | 71c | 290.03$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked No | 28c | 277.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 71c | 262.57$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 5c | 222.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed Yes | 21c | 198.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 194.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 20c | 194$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 21c | 187.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415b…25e8backed No | 55c | 185.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 46c | 179.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 68c | 179.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 19c | 171.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed Yes | 36c | 151$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…a6f0backed Yes | 77c | 144.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 70c | 142.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed No | 19c | 140$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…df89backed Yes | 16c | 138.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…cfbdbacked Yes | 65c | 132.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 70c | 113.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 74c | 111.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…b0bbbacked No | 15c | 107.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 100.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ded9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…db75backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 21c | 87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…cc0cbacked Yes | 56c | 79.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 68c | 79.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…8224backed Yes | 65c | 74.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 79c | 74.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 27c | 71.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…0308backed Yes | 20c | 67.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 77c | 66.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 17c | 64.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…4c52backed Yes | 77c | 63.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 30c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…5deabacked Yes | 67c | 59.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…e2c6backed No | 36c | 51.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 29c | 49.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 34c | 48.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed No | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…4bb3backed No | 62c | 39.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 35c | 38.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…ccb0backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…c6cabacked Yes | 72c | 33.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Yes | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 73c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd765…889dbacked Yes | 66c | 29.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…b3c2backed Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3a…3658backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…908fbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…f712backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…10f1backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…d5a8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d21…caa1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…c3ebbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…82d5backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…acd1backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.