Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ee7d09db26a432ee51b47c9319f488d16ad27ce9d7e97c683e5a45e9b768ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 58c | 3,188$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.75 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 51c | 1,037$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 715.58$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.41 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 584.16$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 49c | 524.8$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.34 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 53c | 485.49$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 54c | 373.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed No | 35c | 306.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 55c | 221.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 178.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…a4b4backed No | 44c | 175.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 52c | 170.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6c…7171backed Yes | 45c | 153.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 59c | 153.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…f5bdbacked No | 49c | 137.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 43c | 136$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 49c | 135.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x415b…25e8backed No | 44c | 125.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 55c | 103.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…db75backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 96.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…f642backed No | 40c | 95.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…e2c6backed No | 44c | 91.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 87.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 57c | 82.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 29c | 78.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…a6f0backed Yes | 70c | 66.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…0e53backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Yes | 49c | 62.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 31c | 55.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 54c | 53.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…cc0cbacked No | 28c | 52.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 45c | 51.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3a…3658backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 47c | 47.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…c3ebbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…d4bbbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…d1d9backed Yes | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 51c | 38.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed Yes | 70c | 38.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 44c | 30.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…7adcbacked No | 34c | 29.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…1506backed Yes | 52c | 28.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 52c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 44c | 25.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 56c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c2…12e7backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…9332backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d21…caa1backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.