Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d17b2d7d45a5dbc10704f140c2fd14684aea65d6671ad67f5cc5f3c34ac7a37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 15c | 5,447$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.61 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 79c | 1,505$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,387$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 1,304$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.09 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes | 17c | 1,183$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,183$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.23 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 7c | 1,079$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 17c | 952.93$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 19c | 708.15$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 18c | 569.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…0950backed Yes | 18c | 562.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 16c | 510$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 6c | 469.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…42f8backed No | 67c | 448.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 74c | 354.32$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 79c | 294.96$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 20c | 280$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked Yes | 33c | 258.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 17c | 253.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 240.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 12c | 214.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbade…5c92backed Yes | 21c | 212.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 16c | 208.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 17c | 202.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 15c | 202.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 18c | 199.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…03e2backed Yes | 16c | 186.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed Yes | 33c | 166.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 23c | 146.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…0e53backed Yes | 15c | 143.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce5…d3fcbacked Yes | 22c | 126.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…2fdebacked Yes | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 110.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 110.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…8d34backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 19c | 95.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…8b67backed No | 77c | 84.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 76.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 20c | 75.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 25c | 70.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 20c | 61.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ded9backed Yes | 38c | 59.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415b…25e8backed No | 58c | 49.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…cc0cbacked Yes | 29c | 44.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.