Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1863375c4a60071ed75f617ca1e097a5e7b26a1cf1d37ff7fa6cca0c04620308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4548…0308backed Yes | 11c | 7,926$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 9c | 2,619$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.76 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 6c | 1,744$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 47c | 1,655$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.87 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 46c | 1,611$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 77c | 1,390$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.9 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 62c | 1,247$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.47 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 11c | 1,194$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.81 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked No | 62c | 876.98$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 721.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 616.05$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.17 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…510bbacked Yes | 57c | 600$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 6c | 596$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 42c | 594.77$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.26 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…e00abacked Yes | 35c | 521.4$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 62c | 484.8$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.22 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 36c | 484$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed Yes | 14c | 465.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…0950backed Yes | 50c | 383.4$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 47c | 351.32$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…5d52backed Yes | 36c | 292.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 40c | 285.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 21c | 258.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 9c | 233.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 40c | 209.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 8c | 208$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…5deabacked Yes | 48c | 162.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 40c | 114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 37c | 107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 41c | 98.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 97.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 19c | 95.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x415b…25e8backed No | 62c | 93.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 67c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 79c | 88.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e7…a3b3backed Yes | 35c | 81.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…5c55backed No | 63c | 71.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…0e53backed Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 63c | 54.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…8c95backed Yes | 35c | 40.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe71…31fbbacked Yes | 51c | 37.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…08ccbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…7cebbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d21…caa1backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…c3ebbacked No | 60c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…8f45backed No | 62c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…04e9backed Yes | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.