Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203ae7c21a6264217c51e5d48b0efaa57e97c1d99626ade366c439281eeda934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,933$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,742$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 2c | 941.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 11c | 534.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fee…a676backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 472.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…5d52backed Yes | 27c | 354.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 8c | 321.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…ed7cbacked No | 75c | 313.31$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 309.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 47c | 257.59$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 242.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…db75backed Yes | 31c | 225$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 190.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 8c | 171.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 25c | 159.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 44c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…f239backed Yes | 24c | 117.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e7…a3b3backed Yes | 26c | 109.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…f642backed No | 75c | 98.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe71…31fbbacked Yes | 24c | 79.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 22c | 59.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 72c | 59.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 74c | 43.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…3b59backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…908fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…d4bbbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…8e32backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…3ab8backed No | 76c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.