Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd8223082c2cfe2d015297d992c18fcc1ff4334846262c9afe1568a0cdcad88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafc0…5087backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 1,546$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.07 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,297$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…cc66backed Yes | 8c | 412.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 7c | 353.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 308.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 248.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 226$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 218.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 16c | 201.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 14c | 143.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…d4bbbacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 96.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 19c | 95.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 17c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…330cbacked No | 77c | 89.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.