Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6dba42f37731aacc06f6b897e2951feffe2fed043415a79d67e06c770ba7c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 10c | 9,357$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 19c | 8,071$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,526.95 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 18c | 4,079$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 13c | 2,931$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,539.18 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed No | 70c | 2,929$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 31c | 2,201$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.47 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 2c | 2,115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +135%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 78c | 2,097$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.21 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked No | 11c | 2,045$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 1,881$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.74 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 70c | 1,841$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,552$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 6c | 1,505$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…8ec3backed Yes | 29c | 1,231$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed Yes | 25c | 1,091$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 51c | 1,084$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,053$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 16c | 1,030$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 65c | 1,000$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.26 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…b33ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 12c | 984.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 44c | 930.29$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.71 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 912.65$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.66 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 44c | 906$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.45 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…e56cbacked Yes | 40c | 831$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +209.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…5ad9backed Yes | 44c | 776.58$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 7c | 744.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 19c | 737.9$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 16c | 700$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 8c | 676.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…8df5backed Yes | 26c | 649.59$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 53c | 626.13$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.61 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 568.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked No | 4c | 560.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked Yes | 68c | 513.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…29ddbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 4c | 483.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…7ffebacked No | 3c | 477.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 42c | 450.03$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 449.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 43c | 443.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 432.02$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 40c | 422.27$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.79 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…99c4backed Yes | 69c | 420.03$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 7c | 399.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 393.94$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…0c00backed Yes | 79c | 390.65$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 23c | 365.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.06 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 335.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…e1c4backed No | 66c | 319.89$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 42c | 317$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed Yes | 65c | 308.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…bb86backed Yes | 47c | 307.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 56c | 302.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…178dbacked No | 8c | 294.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 294.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed Yes | 71c | 282.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 276.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.43 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 34c | 260.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 62c | 257.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…6affbacked No | 75c | 255.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 32c | 255.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 5c | 244.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 232.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 220.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…dd36backed Yes | 34c | 211.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 31c | 208.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.34 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…033fbacked Yes | 38c | 208.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…72b2backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e3…6df9backed No | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 9c | 190.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 36c | 180$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 179.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.87 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 29c | 151.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 44c | 151.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 33c | 151.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…c2c1backed Yes | 55c | 146.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 140.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 70c | 139.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 15c | 137.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +531%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…231ebacked Yes | 37c | 134.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 39c | 126$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 19c | 126$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 25c | 121.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 37c | 121.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 120.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…fa5bbacked Yes | 39c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…54e9backed No | 62c | 113.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 46c | 112.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.