Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30ed4299e3ff89e3b413a80cf9ab482356749157d983698a0249af6831f31b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4db6backed Yes | 25c | 964.85$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Yes | 12c | 830.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 820.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 8c | 772.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 432.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 316.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 287.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed Yes | 4c | 283.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 255.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…203abacked Yes | 10c | 221.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…754fbacked Yes | 9c | 220.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db4…5b2fbacked Yes | 13c | 215.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…1f6abacked Yes | 9c | 173.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 163$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 16c | 155.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 19c | 154.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes | 21c | 144.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…671fbacked Yes | 25c | 137.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 9c | 133.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 10c | 129.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 121.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…231ebacked Yes | 16c | 102.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 11c | 92.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60da…ae16backed Yes | 19c | 91.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…72b2backed Yes | 15c | 80.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…9403backed Yes | 17c | 69.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 22c | 44.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 31.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 79c | 26.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.