Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a2d679061801f07c1ec866fe3b0a699b76a79553d004fd8ce1d43ea9bf8454d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 2c | 13,108$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.46 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 6c | 7,765$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.04 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 40c | 6,675$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.96 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 2c | 2,827$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…e56cbacked No | 24c | 2,239$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +209.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 22c | 1,912$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…3a89backed Yes | 59c | 1,437$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,333$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,324$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 15c | 1,290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe526…a19dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,222$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,048$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 6c | 895.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 48c | 828$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.08 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde65…b502backed Yes | 7c | 778.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 10c | 775.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…975bbacked Yes | 6c | 733.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 8c | 730.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…3206backed Yes | 15c | 679.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 31c | 532.78$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.53 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 8c | 484.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed Yes | 34c | 483.07$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…32c1backed Yes | 7c | 480.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 22c | 447.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.89 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 447$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 16c | 431.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…231ebacked Yes | 27c | 381.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 17c | 330.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 316.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 18c | 293.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 14c | 281.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 79c | 252.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…4e08backed Yes | 6c | 234.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…0a67backed Yes | 23c | 226.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f0ebbacked Yes | 24c | 210.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…e69bbacked Yes | 5c | 206.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…754fbacked Yes | 21c | 190.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed Yes | 67c | 190.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 8c | 185.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 14c | 180.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…0d55backed Yes | 14c | 180.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 16c | 176.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 175.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 159.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…a0b6backed Yes | 13c | 151.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…9bfebacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 145.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 14c | 136.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 133.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…b33ebacked Yes | 13c | 132.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…f9eebacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 25c | 121.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…c2c1backed Yes | 16c | 120.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…72b2backed Yes | 15c | 120.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 22c | 120.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed No | 13c | 111.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +531%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 21c | 110.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…9c15backed Yes | 18c | 108.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 19c | 103.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db4…5b2fbacked Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 50c | 103.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 66c | 100.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…e6efbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…29ddbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 23c | 89.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…f209backed Yes | 26c | 77.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 19c | 72.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 31c | 69.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 68c | 67.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 33c | 66.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 65.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 47c | 63.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 53c | 63.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 50c | 59.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 19c | 56.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 23c | 52.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.