Commodities · resolved market
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd799fb4562c80d6d088ab93a5b5f04b1a12ade5cc4f4c874ecfb94bd08c23f82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfae1…5f2abacked Yes | 0c | 88,580$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…992ebacked Yes | 0c | 88,167$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 21c | 5,829$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.45 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…af97backed Yes | 25c | 2,385$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 36c | 2,201$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 2,111$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,819$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.69 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,819$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 75c | 1,725$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.83 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,052$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 950.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 71c | 871.86$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.04 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…f0ffbacked Yes | 17c | 842.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Yes | 14c | 736.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…7a0ebacked Yes | 25c | 649$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 542.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d7c9backed Yes | 17c | 439.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 13c | 410.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…a934backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 76c | 399.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 11c | 398.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 394.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed No | 77c | 376.62$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 16c | 359.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…72b2backed Yes | 14c | 359.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 9c | 324.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 15c | 323.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 16c | 321.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 68c | 319.33$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 306.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 66c | 300.75$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 43c | 290.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c3…0648backed Yes | 37c | 287.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 54c | 275.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 274$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…8df5backed No | 77c | 259.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 23c | 233.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 28c | 220.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 212.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 13c | 210$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 74c | 202.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…bfa9backed Yes | 31c | 189.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 32c | 189.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 34c | 186.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…e14cbacked Yes | 57c | 176.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 31c | 174.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…8581backed Yes | 40c | 165.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 148.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 141.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 14c | 141.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 139.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 129.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 72c | 129$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 14c | 126.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 12c | 124.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed No | 78c | 122$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 12c | 120.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +140%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…d85bbacked Yes | 13c | 118.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 20c | 117.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 73c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…f82fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 98.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…dec1backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…3eb3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…57a2backed Yes | 57c | 82.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…5455backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e45…8d92backed No | 80c | 79.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 19c | 78.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…8b97backed No | 65c | 76.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…8c0cbacked Yes | 22c | 75.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 70.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…b28bbacked Yes | 53c | 59.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…5523backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 53.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 34c | 49.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…8ca3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 71c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fb…94f8backed No | 74c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…c270backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…2a6dbacked No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?this page
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.