TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba3a…e041backed Yes68c1,514$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.239927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes48c629.56$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.73638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No28c557.5$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No40c502.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.928,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c441.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.226,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No33c340.7$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0724066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No45c314.6$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No46c310.27$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.52227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes58c250$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.52638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4920…2b87backed No51c227.96$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.543542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes55c208$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.61,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No49c198.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8728737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No25c196.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No52c172$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2512154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c169.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c164.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.087,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No19c162.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes53c155$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c129.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.179,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x684f…cef7backed Yes20c128.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.565435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.94,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c118.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.157,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No10c115$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes21c110$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.994919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No72c104.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.071,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c100.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x166c…bf05backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x043c…442dbacked Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No67c99.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9810577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd739…ecb6backed No47c99.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c96.81$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.052,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd8c…2600backed No45c90.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked No54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+88.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c85.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.592,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No52c84.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.811,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No55c84.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.236349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…4e57backed No51c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.44551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8437644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c78.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0981…f923backed Yes46c77.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes55c74.18$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3818550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Yes46c67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.181338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes36c67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes49c61.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0130141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes58c60.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4516548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes19c57.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3820942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc2…e280backed Yes53c56.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.772070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes49c56.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.556065%39 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes79c52.18$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7716634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes48c51.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8955942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes79c51.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7f…ddb1backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262050%10 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80cc…4c27backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aef…3b6dbacked No52c49.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…105fbacked Yes28c49.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.06450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes32c46.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8713…bfd5backed Yes58c46.87$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.875058%29 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No53c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8511652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked Yes23c44.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1618452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e0…19ccbacked No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204562.2%28 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes51c39.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.193946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1519…bcb8backed Yes45c38.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes52c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.243560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf785…2e62backed Yes49c32.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.47650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes33c31.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes51c31.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No80c31.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e7…666abacked No51c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9350%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No50c30.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9511925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No54c30.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.34751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes39c30.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.371,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No57c29.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9115339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb3…c495backed No50c27.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.981758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d20…d646backed Yes47c27.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No54c26.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4220150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes49c24.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6317644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8f7…68e2backed Yes51c22.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No71c22.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9912365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes55c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1018164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0fcb…7c12backed Yes47c21.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No54c20.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes73c20.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4814134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.415937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c15.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.313,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.