Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aa16d7b099b64360ce3f63c250b5e600f3b034d97b6048df998e35bc5d864c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 2c | 7,800$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 926.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 6c | 891.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 558.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 436.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 428.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 11c | 361.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 17c | 352.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 351.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…dfadbacked Yes | 5c | 309.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 9c | 278$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 247.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5f20backed Yes | 8c | 228.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 209.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 13c | 176.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 7c | 165.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 165.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 7c | 149.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 7c | 145.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 144.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 134.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 10c | 132.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 8c | 131.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 19c | 123.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 113.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…4327backed Yes | 13c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 18c | 108.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49f…accabacked Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…6c8abacked Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 15c | 84.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…dd9bbacked Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 67c | 51.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 37.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 78c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.